Probability
Under development is a chart that categorizes five levels of probability based on various aspects of evidence in a given case: highly probable, probable, possible, improbable, and highly improbable. This worksheet will assign equal numbers of negative and positive point values based on factors such as the number and credibility of eyewitnesses, proximity to the sighting, characteristics of the phenomenon, accompanying video and radar data, potential for hoax or deception, presence of physical evidence, documentation, possible natural explanations, and more. Each anomalous aspect of an object's attributes and maneuvers is included within the grading system. Once this is finalized, a Bayesian inference model will be incorporated to see where these points of evidence stack up to the simplified method of probability by providing specific percentage values.
In the upcoming book, roughly 80 of the most notable cases throughout history will be graded using this probability worksheet. This includes cases that either defy scientific explanation or have been debunked as natural phenomena or hoaxes. This approach establishes a balanced perspective. Direct feedback will be solicited in the member forum to potentially incorporate any additional suggestions into the worksheet prior to the book's publication.
Once all cases deemed as hoaxes, mundane phenomena, or natural occurrences are eliminated as improbable or highly improbable, an additional worksheet will be developed for cases that fall under probable or highly probable. This worksheet will deduce the likelihood of origin for each common characteristic associated with those cases. A point value of 1 through 4 will be assigned to each possibility based on a logical deduction of likelihood for each potential origin source, using a process of elimination. The four main possibilities considered are: the extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH), or aliens from another planet; the extratempestrial model (ETM), or humans from the future; the cryptoterrestrial/ultraterrestrial hypothesis (CTH/UTH), or an ancient lost civilization from Earth; and the interdimensional hypothesis (IDH), or beings from another dimension or reality. While there are more specific interpretations, such as demons and angels or transuniversal (simulation) architects, these would fall under the broader IDH possibility. Similarly, interpretations of avatars, AI, or synthetic biological beings all fall under the ETH since the ultimate source of origin would be aliens from another planet who created or manufactured them.
A similar grading worksheet for video evidence will also be featured, with point values based on factors such as accompanying documented evidence, video testimonials based on eyewitness observations allowing for independent visual analysis of body language, multiple eyewitnesses with accompanying testimonials, real-time reactions of witnesses during recording, the authenticity of the recording, the age of the video, whether there was any professional video analysis to determine CGI or other mundane explanations, and if it was recorded during a live broadcast, among others.
Yet another chart will compare current mainstream scientific hypotheses that are seriously considered by many in the scientific community and how those points of evidence stack up against existing evidence in support of an NHI presence. Comparing available evidence of NHI to evidence for established hypotheses may reveal a sense of hypocrisy, as equations can only take us so far in understanding what we observe and its relation to the true nature of reality. While visual observations can be highly subjective, there are many examples of witnessed events that are undoubtedly objective. This approach can help us discern truths about what we see and experience that are at least useful for human understanding.